Sorting Out The 2012
Contenders And Pretenders
By Dan Spalding,
for dumbhoosier.com
The second of 15 Republican presidential debates is set
for next Monday and there seems to be almost as many people who are
considering a chance to challenge President Obama for the presidency
next year.
While only seven candidates are expected to participate in next week’s
debate on CNN, the Republican race is as unpredictable as Sarah Palin’s
itinerary.
Below is a recap of the potential players and how things might shake
out on the campaign trail.
Mitt Romney – He’s got the most money and the best organization, but
he’s viewed by many as a smooth talking flip-flopper with a serious
health care issue that won’t go away. Recent polls have him with a
slight lead in a match-up against Obama, but he represents a very
unenthusiastic choice for conservatives and his nomination would be
eerily reminiscent of John McCain’s electoral dilemma.
Herman Cain – A great speaker with some clear-cut ideas, Cain, who is
black, is a former CEO and is quickly emerging as a legitimate. He
could carry the mantra of the Straight Talk Express if it weren’t so
cliché. Unfortunately, while he might have some solid appeal, winning
any Southern primaries is probably a long shot. And while there might
be some appeal among black conservatives for his candidacy, other black
voters may be just as offended that he’s targeting America’s first
black president.
Ron Paul – He has a strong segment of support, but his mix of
libertarian views leaves too many voters confounded for him to amass a
significant following. His supporters, though, are dedicated, and he
could probably launch a third-party run if he felt inclined.
Tim Pawlenty – The former governor of Minnesota lacks name recognition
and comes across as Romney Extra Lite.
Newt Gingrich – He’s a has-been with lots of baggage and his recent
slip-up about the Paul Ryan budget plan has left his campaign on life
support.
Rick Santorum – He’s very conservative – to the point of turning off
some independents. He’s a pretender and probably won’t last beyond the
first handful of contests if he even gets that far.
Gary Johnson – The former New Mexico Governor lacks name recognition
and doesn’t really stand out from the pack in any way.
The list of unannounced candidates is more interesting.
Sarah Palin – She’s playing games with the press and is considered by
many to be a pretender. She’ll probably step away from the campaign
trail soon, but her endorsement could carry some weight.
Michele Bachmann – The lawmaker from Minnesota is a real wild card. A
tea party darling, she is well-organized in Iowa and could launch a
strong campaign. But she’s prone to shooting from the hip and is
occasionally loose with the facts. I could envision a Romney-Bachmann
ticket – yet another scenario that would mirror 2008.
John Huntsman – He’s not that conservative or well known. He could
emerge early on, but in a crowded field, he’ll struggle financially.
He’s probably a pretender.
Rudy Giuliani – The former mayor of NYC has expressed interest, but I
don’t think he is what conservatives are looking for. Plus, his effort
in 2008 seemed half-hearted at best.
Rick Perry – The Texas governor could jump in and have an impact in
Southern primaries and could prove to be a favorite among
conservatives, but his talk of Texas seceding will follow him. I’m
guessing he’ll wait for 2016.
While Obama is vulnerable on several issues, many of the best and
brightest Republicans have already stepped aside and are probably
eyeing 2016.Those include Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Mitch
Daniels, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley.
The 2016 race could end up looking like a heavy weight battle compared
to what is brewing in 2012.
Just a week ago, I thought to myself, wow, a 2016 debate between
Christie vs. Anthony Weiner would be a battle royale. Both guys are
known for their outspoken candor and are quite entertaining. One week
later, though, Weiner’s career is in a shambles.
Weiner’s sudden implosion exemplifies how fluid political waters can be.
Aside from the volatile economy and the unending potential for another
terror attack that could easily reshape the race, the current political
atmosphere alone promises to contain more plot twists and thereby
ensure the battle for the Republican nomination could remain as
unsettled a year from now as it is today.
Bio: Dan Spalding is a former Warsaw resident who loves politics and
lives in South Bend.
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